WP-7 performs socio-economic analysis of cropping pattern shifts and land-use pressure. It provides the 'human' dimension of land change, understanding how urbanization and environmental stress drive agricultural transitions.
Scientific Objectives
Identify and map significant land-use and land-cover (LULC) changes over the past 20 years.
Quantify the drivers of cropping pattern shifts, including salinity and market access.
Model future land-use scenarios under varying urbanization and climate pressures.
Analyze the impact of land transitions on regional food security and ecosystem services.
Execution Framework
T1. Historical Land Use Mapping
Reconstructing the history of land transformation.
- Analysis of multi-temporal Landsat and Sentinel image time series (2000-present).
- Mapping of annual cropping patterns and conversion to non-agricultural uses.
- Direct validation of classification results using historical aerial photography.
- Creation of a longitudinal database of land transition 'hotspots'.
T2. Driver and Transition Factor Analysis
Understanding why land use is changing.
- Implementation of econometric models to correlate land shifts with environmental factors.
- Analysis of the role of new irrigation infrastructure on land-use intensification.
- Assessment of urbanization-driven land loss in high-productivity zones.
- Examination of policy and land tenure influences on transition pathways.
T3. Future Scenario Modeling (Land Change Science)
Projecting the road ahead for Bangladesh's landscapes.
- Development of spatially explicit land-use change models (e.g., CLUMondo).
- Generation of scenarios for 2030 and 2050 based on current trends and policy goals.
- Integrated assessment of climate impact on land suitability for specific crops.
- Visualization of land transition projections in the WebAIS platform.
Project Milestones
20-year longitudinal land-use and cropping pattern dataset finalized.
Quantitative analysis of land transition drivers published for policy-makers.
Future land-cover scenarios (2030/2050) modeled and integrated in WebAIS.
Regional master-plan recommendations for land management in high-stress zones.
